Data Exercise#2

Part 1: The Unemployment Rate

  1. This data summarizes the employment situation of February 2019. The employment rate during this period was 3.8 %
  2. The unemployment rate for the job groups was as follows: Whites (3.3 %), Hispanics (4.3 %), teenagers (13.4 %), (7.0 %), and women (3.4 %). Among the worker groups, the unemployment rates for Whites (3.3 %), and Hispanics (4.3 %) decreased in February while unemployment rates for adult women (3.4 %), teenagers (13.4 %), and Blacks (7.0 %) indicated a little or no change over the month.
  3. The unemployment rate is challenging to determine due to various factors. First, it is difficult to determine the unemployment rate because of the presence of discouraged persons. These are people who do not look for employment because they believe that there are no opportunities for jobs available for them. In this data, the discouraged individuals were estimated to be around 428,000 discouraged workers in February. Secondly, the official measures of unemployment can yield unexpected results due to the presence of people who had not searched for jobs due to various reasons such as family responsibilities and school attendance (Friedman,1977). During February analysis, this group accounted for 1.0 million persons. Finally, the group of people who want to work as part-time because of personal reasons or people who want to work full time but only find part-time employment due to economic reasons (4.3 million) The difficulties intensified due to partial government shut-down of early 2019. In general, it is hard to calculate employment data since no all who are jobless are necessarily unemployed, instead, to be counted in the unemployment rate, one must have to be without a job and has looked for it in the past.
  4. Unemployment is generally recognized as economically undesirable. Firstly, an unemployed person is likely to experience personal and financial problems. For instance, such type of person cannot pay to cope up with own requirements such as purchasing and acquiring basic needs. An unemployed person is also unable to pay taxes to support governmental projects. Instead, they become programs and requirements support. Furthermore, prolonged unemployment may result in erosion of skills. Erosion of skills may robe the economy of useful talents. Finally, Unemployment leads to additional expense to the national government and federal governments. It forces the government to pay more unemployment benefits and other assistance. For example, according to Lhby (2012), the state and federal unemployment benefit programs have cost r $520 billion as it appeared in Congressional Budget Office report of 2012 fiscal year.
  5. Unemployment may result in adverse non-economic problems. For example, the unemployed individual may have adverse physical health, higher rates of drug abuse, and suicides. On the other hand, unemployment causes family demoralization and may cause breakdowns in relationships in addition to increased crimes rate in the society.
  6. Unemployment is detrimental to the economic sector. William 2016 reports significant losers as a result of unemployment. According to his report, William maintains that in the centre of modern society, factories, labourers, and manufacturers are the major losers in unemployment.
  7. The information about helps in making investment decisions that are geared towards developing the workforce. Both Federal and State policymakers, government agencies, and business managers require the information in making investment decisions. This information of the unemployment rate is a significant indicator that Federal and State Reserve use to determine the progress of the U.S economy, and in setting up monetary policy. Additionally, the data is used by the Investors to make an investment decision on possible sectors to allocate their business to utilize the wasted labour-force.

The data is helpful for a learner to get enlightened with economic information about the country. In particular, the report enables a learner to know the previous effects of the federal government shut down on the economy.

Part 2: The Inflation Rate

  1. This data reports the consumer price index of February 2019. For all urban he Consumer Price CPI-U was 0.2 %in February 2019
  2. The inflation rate for the month was 1.5 %. The inflation rate for this period was lower than the rate recorded for the 12 months ending which stood at 1.6 %.
  3. Generally, Shelter and the food away from home marked the greatest price indicated by inflations of 3.4 % and 2.9 %respectively.
  4. In general, energy commodities and all types of gasoline had the lowest prices decrease presented by the fall in an inflation rate of -8.6 % and -9.1% respectively.
  5. Historically, the high inflation rate has hurt the American economy. During the periods of inflation, people’s standard of living declines and the purchasing power negatively shifts. Furthermore, borrowing to invest in new businesses lowers, and the economy becomes more difficult to cope up. Different groups of persons lost in a period of high inflation. Among the losers during inflation according to Royal (2019), include Savers. Increasing inflation at rate results in a fluctuation in the interest rates. Thus, the effect causes savers who saved dollars to lose the buying power gradually. Secondly, Retirees also loses during inflation. A high percentage of inflation means that there is an increase in wages. However, the increased wages do not benefit the people who have already retired.

Thirdly, investors with long-term bonds are bound to suffer and lose when inflation occurs.  During a high inflation period, the relationship is significantly affected, the result of the loss rest on the bond owners. Furthermore, Variable-rate mortgage holders lose during inflation since mortgage rates aren’t fixed and undergo borrowing costs increase along with high inflation resulting in higher payments and decreased affordability.

Finally, Credit card debt holders and First-time homebuyers lose in the time high inflation encroaches the economy. During such periods, most credit cards possess variable interest rates determined by prime rates. Consequently, credit card holders experience quickly increased rates and higher payments in the economy. On the other hand, First-time homebuyers, seeking to save for their first home prices, are stumbled by rising home prices, high mortgages interest rates and the loss of monetary value they allocated for a down payment.

  1. The information presented in this data is essential in providing pieces of evidence of the progress in the consumer sectors economy. The information is critical to both the state and the federal government to determine the burden the consumers are facing in acquiring different goods and services and set appropriate methods to improve consumer living standards and the economy in general.

Furthermore, consumer price index data can be used in altering the amounts payable in taxation. The government may affect liability for income tax by linking personal allowances of people that can be deducted from taxable income depending on the changes in the CPI. Similarly, in progressive taxation, the different thresholds from which high personal tax rate become operative may be changed concerning changes in the Consumer Price Index.  Finally, investors require statistical data in making an investment decision. Investors use the information to determine Current purchasing power and forecast what is expected in future.

The reading enlightens a reader to forecast on the possibility of inflation and makes an informed decision about the chance of making purchases before the prices for commodities increases. The strategy is essential to reduce the effect of inflation on savings. Additionally, consumer price index information enables a student to be familiar with the economic performance and possible future financial status and living standard of the country.

Part 3: Unemployment Data by Labor Force Groups and Duration

  1. Table B–12: Civilian unemployment rate
 

Years

Age-Range in Years
Male  (16-19) Male (over 20) Female (16-19) Females (x> 20)
2000 14.0 3.3 12.1 3.6
2001 16 4.2 13.4 4.1
2002 18.1 5.3 14.9 5.1
2003 19.3 5.6 15.6 5.1
2004 18.4 5.0 15.5 4.9
2005 18.6 4.4 14.5 4.6
2006 16.9 4.0 13.8 4.1
2007 17.6 4.1 13.8 4.0
2008 21.2 5.4 16.2 4.9
2009 27.8 9.6 20.7 7.5
2010 28.8 9.8 22.8 8.0
2011 27.2 8.7 21.7 7.9
2012 26.8 7.5 21.1 7.3
2013 25.5 7.0 20.3 6.5
2014 21.4 5.7 17.7 5.6
2015 18.4 4.9 15.5 4.8
2016 17.1 4.5 4.4 4.4
2017 15.5 4.0 4.8 4.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Table B–13—Unemployment by duration and reason: Economic Report of the President.
  2. Data Between 2000 and 2017
Year Unemployment <5

Weeks

5-14

Weeks

15-26

Weeks

=>27

Weeks

Mean Duration

Weeks

Median Duration in Weeks Job Losers^3

 

 

Job Leavers Reentrants New Entrants
                Total On Layoff Other      
2000. 5,692 2,558 1,815 669 649 12.6 5.9 2,517 852 1,664 780 1,961 434
2001. 6,801 2,853 2,196 951 801 13.1 6.8 3,476 1,067 2,409 835 2,031 459
2002. 8,378 2,893 2,580 1,369 1,535 16.6 9.1 4,607 1,124 3,483 866 2,368 536
2003. 8,774 2,785 2,612 1,442 1,936 19.2 10.1 4,838 1,121 3,717 818 2,477 641
2004. 8,149 2,696 2,382 1,293 1,779 19.6 9.8 4,197 998 3,199 858 2,408 686
2005. 7,591 2,667 2,304 1,130 1,490 18.4 8.9 3,667 933 2,734 872 2,386 666
2006. 7,001 2,614 2,121 1,031 1,235 16.8 8.3 3,321 921 2,400 827 2,237 616
2007. 7,078 2,542 2,232 1,061 1,243 16.8 8.5 3,515 976 2,539 793 2,142 627
2008. 8,924 2,932 2,804 1,427 1,761 17.9 9.4 4,789 1,176 3,614 896 2,472 766
2009. 14,265 3,165 3,828 2,775 4,496 24.4 15.1 9,160 1,630 7,530 882 3,187 1,035
2010. 14,825 2,771 3,267 2,371 6,415 33.0 21.4 9,250 1,431 7,819 889 3,466 1,220
2011. 13,747 2,677 2,993 2,061 6,016 39.3 21.4 8,106 1,230 6,876 956 3,401 1,284
2012. 12,506 2,644 2,866 1,859 5,136 39.4 19.3 6,877 1,183 5,694 967 3,345 1,316
2013. 11,460 2,584 2,759 1,807 4,310 36.5 17.0 6,073 1,136 4,937 932 3,207 1,247
2014. 9,617 2,471 2,432 1,497 3,218 33.7 14.0 4,878 1,007 3,871 824 2,829 1,086
2015. 8,296 2,399 2,302 1,267 2,328 29.2 11.6 4,063 974 3,089 819 2,535 879
2016. 7,751 2,362 2,226 1,158 2,005 27.5 10.6 3,740 966 2,774 858 2,330 823
2017. 6,982 2,270 2,008 1,017 1,687 25.0 10.0 3,434 956 2,479 778 2,079 690

 

 

  1. Charts (Year vs. Mean Duration in Weeks
  2. Report
  1. Years that had the highest and lowest unemployment rates.
  • Highest: 2009
  • Lowest: 2000

Comparison: During the years, there were more unemployed individuals within fewer than five weeks as compared to their counterparts who were unemployed for 15-26 weeks. The explanation holds through the period.

  1. Comparing the mean duration of unemployment
  • Highest: 2011 –since the mean unemployment duration is 39.3 weeks
  • Lowest: 2000 –since the mean duration of unemployment was 12.6 weeks.
  • Relationship: The duration of unemployment increased from 2000 to 2011.
  1. Increase in the proportion of teenagers and minorities in the U.S will have a substantial change in the demographic composition of the labor force. According to Clogg and Shockey (1985), unless unemployment rates are adjusted for demographic compositional change, population change may make a negative implication on the socio-economic sector of a country. Thus, the results of these changes in the composition of teenagers and minority labor will exert increasingly significant upward pressure on the overall unemployment rate of the United States.
  2. With the growth of a nation’s market economy, the working force becomes distinguishable from the total population. The nation’s workforce cannot perform efficiently and effectively without quality information to identify the unemployed which is making investment decisions concerning workforce development system. The information is essential in assessing the effectiveness of workforce training and relevant educational program. Additionally, the data is critical for both state and federal government in making workforce and labor market decisions. The evidence also makes it possible to access relevant information about employment status by the concerned sectors as well as understanding the characteristics of the workforce. Finally, the report helps in the understanding of the current and future demand for job skills concerning age and sex.

Similarly, studying the data has helped me to understand the rapidly changing nature of the proportion of the population and how it has impacted the labor force and the U.S. economy. It has also helped me to Strengthen my career growth and guided me in skill attainment for suitable employment. Finally, it has improved my information concerning labor force that has enhanced my interest to participate in workforce training and education programs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

References

Clogg, C. C., & Shockey, J. W. (1985). The effect of changing demographic composition on recent trends in underemployment. Demography22(3), 395-414.

William, D. (2016). Who Loses from Unemployment. Taylor and Francis Online. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/00213624.1999.11506182

Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: inflation and unemployment. Journal of political economy85(3), 451-472

Luhny T., (2012) Unemployment benefits cost $520 billion. CNN BUSINESS. https://money.cnn.com/2012/11/29/news/economy/unemployment-benefits-cost/index.html

Royal J., (2019). Winners and losers if inflation skyrockets. Bankrate. Retrieved: https://www.bankrate.com/investing/winners-and-losers-if-inflation-skyrockets/