During the campaign period, President Trump laid down the plans that he had with the objective of making America great again. Among these plans was deportation of over 11 million undocumented immigrants. The public was fed with talks of how the immigrants had taken their jobs, and it was time to reclaim them. The mental picture that was created was that when the immigrants got deported, Americans would now have better access to jobs and this will improve the people’s living standards hence making America great. This notion is far away from the truth.

Assume that the Trump’s administration was able to deport all the undocumented immigrants. Would this affect the economy positively or negatively? The answer is that it would affect the economy negatively contrary to what people were being made to believe. Among the areas to be affected by such a move is the labor force. Between 50 to 80 percent of the workers in agricultural farms are usually immigrants (O’Leary, 2016). Given that the labor market is tight, most of the farms are even short of the required workforce. Farmers are aware that most of their workers are undocumented immigrants given that they fetch lower wages. Hiring legal migrants results in payment of higher wages, which translates to higher prices at the grocery stores and increased importation of vegetables and fruits. This is something that brings a negative effect on the economy.

The building trades also rely on immigrants and will be faced with the same problem in case mass deportations were executed. The shortage of workers will mean that projects will not be initiated, something that results to fewer home purchases, less furniture buying thus translating to less economic activity.

The aspects of debt and dependents that will be left behind after the deportations also come in play. It is good to note that undocumented immigrants have the ability to amass debt in the United States. Deporting them means that they will not honor those debts. This poses a risk for the financial system and lenders in particular. A person does not need to be a permanent resident or a citizen to obtain a credit card, student loan, mortgage and car loan (O’Leary, 2016). For example, to get a mortgage, an illegal immigrant only needs to show his/her history of paying taxes, afford a down payment and perhaps have other documentation of income. Deporting such individuals will result in losses of billions from the economy.

Deportation of undocumented immigrants also has the ability to create costs tied to the dependents. This includes the elderly and the children that are left behind. Most undocumented immigrants have children that are US citizens given that they were born in the country. These children are not financially independent and therefore, deporting their parents leads to child care costs coupled with other indirect costs that will be borne over the time (Soergel, 2017). Being brought up in a stable family helps children to have better educational and career outcomes. To a greater extent, it also helps in reducing criminality. Separating the families increases the prospect of poverty that is likely to worsen educational outcomes. This aspect tends to reduce future tax revenue while increasing future welfare expenditure.

The deportations would also result in some immediate costs. The exercise would require the hiring of more immigration and customs officials to help round up all the undocumented immigrants. There will also be a lot of court costs involved. Paying for lawyers and judges can be expensive. This has been the reason for a backlog of numerous deportation cases. There would be a need to hire more lawyers and judges, or the backlog would worsen.

This also results in the opportunity cost of not channeling the resources to other uses. All these funds that are going to be used for the deportation process can be used in other developmental projects that will help the country move further forward with regards to economic growth. Channel such amount to health care sector would bring more benefits to Americans as a whole as opposed to the latter use.

O’Leary (2016) asserts that the economic benefits of immigrants have been established over the years. The American Action Forum has estimated that removing over 11 million immigrants would result in the decline of the labor force by at least 6%. Based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis figures, the action would cut the GDP by about 8.5% or $1.6 trillion (Soergel, 2017).

The effects that deportations would have on the economy would be detrimental and would take some time to recover. A government that is fiscally prudent would not institute such a move. The action will not make America great again. It would only work in ruining the economy and stability that has already been actualized thus far.

References

O’Leary, A. (2016). Undocumented immigrants in the United States: An Encyclopedia of Their Experience [2 volumes]. California: ABC-CLIO.

Soergel, A. (2017). The Hidden Cost of Deportations. US News. Retrieved 2 May 2017, from https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2017-03-10/mass-deportations-could-hurt-the-economy

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